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  • KGI Securities Analyst Predicts Upcoming Apple Shipments for Holiday Season


    As we are getting closer to the holiday season, analyst Ming Chi Kuo from KGI Securities has released some shipment predictions for the fiscal quarters coming up. Forecasted shipments from Kuo for Apple’s iPhone, Apple Watch, iPad, and Mac are very positive. The fairly reliable analyst estimated 70-75 million iPhone shipments, 3.5-4 million shipments for the Apple Watch, 14.5-15.5 million iPad shipments, and 5.4-5.6 million Mac shipments in fiscal Q1 of 2016.

    This forecast could very likely be true as holiday season is coming up and people will be purchasing presents for their loved ones. Kuo’s estimates include holiday season in Australia, Canada, the U.S., and Europe. He also believes however, sales for the iPhone will gradually decline in the new year and may experience its first shipment decline in Q1 of 2016. Accoring to Kuo,

    We estimate iPhone shipments rose 2.1% QoQ and 23.6% YoY to 48.5mn units in 3Q15, of which 20-22mn units were iPhone 6s. We attribute the solid YoY growth to the inclusion of China as the first-launch market for iPhone 6s and to increased output of the new model (versus 14-15mn units of iPhone 6 in 3Q14).

    However, as we do not expect overall demand for iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than that for iPhone 6, we expect shipments momentum could gradually decline in 4Q15-1Q16F on a YoY basis. We expect iPhone may see its first YoY shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.
    As for Apple’s upcoming iPad Pro, he believes approximately 2 million tablets will be shipped in fiscal Q1 2016. Apparently, he noted that the higher price tablet will help balance out the decline in iPad sales for years now. He noted:

    We now expect shipments of iPad Pro to be around 2mn units in 4Q15, versus our previous forecast of 4-5mn units given quality issues with Sharp’s panel supply. However, thanks to a higher shipments weighting of iPad Pro, coupled with a lower mix of iPad mini, we anticipate the ASP of end-products and some components will trend up in 2016F (e.g. we estimate the ASP of backlight unit to rise 30-35% in 2016). This should be enough to offset total iPad shipments decline, which we estimate will fall 16% to 40-42mn units in 2016F.
    Source: MacRumors
    This article was originally published in forum thread: KGI Securities Analyst Predicts Upcoming Apple Shipments for Holiday Season started by Akshay Masand View original post