A Muted Reaction to Apple TV Becomes Apparent

[Michael Essany]

While there is certainly no shortage of excited Apple fans and digital media consumers about the refreshed Apple TV rolled out yesterday by Steve Jobs at his company's annual September event, the reaction today among Wall Street analysts is anything but exuberant. In fact, most appear to view the forthcoming Apple TV revision as anything but a "game changer" for living room entertainment.

In addition to introducing a new fleet of refurbished iPods (many of which will now sport long-awaited features), Apple also spotlighted iOS 4.1 and iOS 4.2, and the new iTunes 10 with the Ping social music network. But the "hobby" reserved for last at yesterday's event was the rumored second coming of Apple TV, a cloud-centric $99 shell of its former self. And while many on Wall Street still think it will be a huge seller (especially this holiday season), they're tentative about calling it anything other than just a likely popular product. Here's what some of the "big boys" have to say:

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says Apple is certainly on the right track and taking a "step in the right direction," but Apple won't truly have a living room revolution on its hands until it releases a "full-fledged connected HDTV set." For now, Munster believes Apple TV will move 1.5 million units in fiscal year 2011. "We see the new Apple TV as a meaningful change in Apple's efforts in the digital living room. The addition of new content, such as Netflix, in combination with the $99 price (down from $299) will drive higher unit volumes compared to the previous version of Apple TV."

Using one word to summarize Apple's Apple TV announcement, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu called the unveiling "underwhelming," citing his view that Apple TV still looks and feels like a "hobby" or just another "work in progress," not necessarily something that is ready for prime time. "The main capability we were hoping for was the ability to run apps from the iTunes App Store and it looks like AAPL decided to leave this out for now," Wu wrote. In Wu's opinion, the introduction of the iTunes Ping social media service was, by far, the "most intriguing" Apple revelation on Wednesday.

In theory, Gleacher & Company analyst Brian Marshall is at least impressed that the new Apple TV represents "dramatic improvement from its 2006 origins," but Marshall won't truly be impressed until Apple TV gets with the program and begins running iOS and, consequently, lets users run applications from the comfort of their living room recliners. "While we were impressed with the iPod and Apple TV refreshes, in our view, Ping stole the show and represents AAPL's maiden voyage into the uber growth world of social networking," Marshall said.

Wall Street Journal
Apple Insider

[Dizi]

<yawn>

[whereswaldo]

I like the apple tv, it's just that the market isn't big enough for it yet

[Zeal]

Comcast>Apple

[unison999]

change what game? Changing to a low resolution HD not even 1080P? or is he saving 1080P for the Apple TV2 to make people buy it all over again just like the iPad.
Advertising all over the TV with iAD? TV content controlled by Apple? Don't allow pron on iPhone and other stuff, so limiting pron on Apple TV also? Wonder what Hef is going to say about that. Take over internet speed because of the streaming, yeah much fun playing lagging games when someone else watches Apple TV. Cable provider capped people who download and upload a lot on torrents already, with Apple TV streaming cable provider would definitely put a cap on that to keep customer base. I see Apple TV=iFail

[pyro41787]

It doesn't even do 1080P WTF apple? way to offer product that is automaticly inferior to the market standard. i prefer my WDTV live. or the WDTV plus for netflix access.

and no way to attach external storage for already downloaded content? PFT screw that.

i was hoping this was going to be a great upgrade to my WDTV live but now im thinking ill get a popcorn hour media player instead....

[rhollister]

Yes, that analyst is right! Why not open it up to Apps from the app store. How hard would that be? Maybe not even the same apps, but the same open development platform.

[macsoldier]

I feel Apple left to much out with the APPLE TV it's like one of those products that has alot of potential but they are holding out on what they could really do with it.

[defdad]

I think it is a step in the right direction. I may get one just for the Netflix feature. I'd like to move my xbox into the game room where it belongs and I don't want to buy another blue-ray player just for Netflix. I can't really think of any apps I would run on it anyway, so that's not a big deal. The rental content would add up quick without the Netflix player and streaming content will be nice(like I do with my xbox now).

[politicalslug]

As soon as the Apple TV allows me to wireless stream ANY media to my TV (from a PC) in the same way as I can with my xbox360, then I'll pick up 2-3 of these little beauts.

[vedavis]

ATV = $99 = no 1080p = FAIL. Are they thinking that a backwards progression will persuade the faithful to follow? Pay $10-$30 more and get full HD with Roku, WD Live, etc.

[LastSonOfKrypton]

Needs Hulu+

[organik]

Apple TV rocks! I use it every day. Ordered the new one just for Netflix really, and I'll use it every day as well. To everybody complaining about the lack of features, just remember more isn't always better, in fact it rarely is. I prefer my devices to do specific things really well, not everything poorly. And AirPlay is really very cool, too bad we have to wait until Nov.

[havoc0351]

As soon as the Apple TV allows me to wireless stream ANY media to my TV (from a PC) in the same way as I can with my xbox360, then I'll pick up 2-3 of these little beauts.

Don't hold your breath buddy...

[1shuttle1]

I like the present Apple TV better. When we go on vacation I grab it and have access to all my music and all the kids movies. Great for rainy days and keeping kids occupied after a long day. Like the hard drive. I've never seen a company so obsessed with making things smaller.

[javiert30]

We need netflix for Mac, watch movies without go to Netflix website

[zozodouce]

not for me,i already have livetv and free using my slingbox hd i'm not going to pay more money for the same thing i can get for free.sory steve this one= fail to me.

[zoso10]

I think Apple trying to reach out into the TV consumer division is just a little bit too much of a stretch. Yeah they have some cool ideas with 'AirPlay' I guess, but the follow through with other things just isn't working out too well.

[ctrobins]

The thing is only $100!!! A lot of people will probably buy it just to stream video and music to their home theater's.

I get my Netflix via my Blu-Ray player, and stream audio, photo's and video using Connect360 to my XBox. But, having these via an AppleTV is enough convenience to justify a measly $100!

That said... I've just proven that I don't really need it.

[southfrisco]

Comcast>Apple

That is a push actually (I am being generous to Comcash) and you forgot the TV after Apple because I don't think you meant as a company Comcash is better than Apple.

• Overpriced cable packages
• Overpriced broadband (and phantom advertised speeds)
• Horrible customer service outside of "unplug and plug back in"
• Constant billing problems
• A monopoly (no competition) in every location they provide cable to
• No ala carte network packages
• Slow to make any type of positive change for their customers

There is not much to like there.