IDC: Windows Phone Platform to Pass iOS By 2016 in Smartphone Share

[Michael Essany]

Only a short time ago, such a projection would have appeared to come form the most delusional of Windows fans. But circumstances have changed. And now one of the most respected research firms in the mobile industry has stepped up to make a bold prediction about the future of iOS and the Windows Phone platform.

On Wednesday, IDC projected that Microsoft's Windows Phone will overshoot Apple's iOS in terms of the worldwide smartphone market share in 2016. In other words, four years from now, the global mobile landscape
could be drastically altered from what we know today.

"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape," says Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. "Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements."

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia's strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia's foothold in emerging markets is maintained.

All told, there's no shortage of positive headlines today for the burgeoning mobile platform. Earlier today, Millennial Media seemed to hop on board the Windows Phone momentum train by announcing a new Windows Phone SDK for developers.

"The number of apps in the Windows Phone Marketplace has grown by 60 percent, to nearly 80,000 from January to March of this year according to the Windows Phone Blog," said Matt Gillis, SVP of Global Monetization Solutions at Millennial Media. "During that same time, they report that the number of customer stores around the world nearly doubled, providing 54 markets for developers to sell their apps."

Sources: IDC, Millennial Media

[The6uest]

We'll see about that.

[DeathOfLife]

By 2016 No One Will Remember This Post

[MXCO]

By 2016 No One Will Remember This Post

True that yo.

[cockyjeremy]

*Yawn* It's Microsoft, they'll screw up huge sometime before 2016 and it'll be near 0% market share. They're the company that can screw up anything.

[brodimus]

You mean the way Android does now simply because there are 500 types of phones that have Android as opposed to 5 that have iOS?

[andypropaganda]

And now one of the most respected research firms in the mobile industry has stepped up to make a bold prediction about the future of iOS and the Windows Phone platform.

(In the voice of Ron Burgundy) Bold. Bold indeed.

[nityanandachandra]

Mayans predicted end of Microsoft in 2012

[mustard05]

By 2016 No One Will Remember This Post

in 2016 seconds I will have forgotten about this post. In fact, if the news doesn't get better, I will be forgetting about this site in less than 2016 seconds!

[Alluziion]

The naivety of these overpaid forecasters is ridiculous, Nokia only has strength in emerging markets because they have been selling their brick-phones there for the past decade. The consumer population of these nations are well aware of this and they see the Nokia brand as down-market with limited functionality, they know that Apple and Samsung dominate the higher end market with iOS and Android and they will be eager to get their hands on these high-end smartphones as the national income and GDP per capita increases. These dinosaur forecasters need to stop predicting the future based on the past - the world is changing.

[unixman84]

Back in 2006/2007 when MS took a fat dump on the iPhone and basically called it an expensive toy, they laid down the foundation for there own demise. Truth is they have great ideas and nobody who knows how to implement them, when i think of MS i think of MS office and XBOX. This is because they like to draw imaginary lines around their markets that define them in the wrong way or try to define other products the wrong way. Hopefully they will learn to market correctly and fix this.

[unison999]

The naivety of these overpaid forecasters is ridiculous, Nokia only has strength in emerging markets because they have been selling their brick-phones there for the past decade. The consumer population of these nations are well aware of this and they see the Nokia brand as down-market with limited functionality, they know that Apple and Samsung dominate the higher end market with iOS and Android and they will be eager to get their hands on these high-end smartphones as the national income and GDP per capita increases. These dinosaur forecasters need to stop predicting the future based on the past - the world is changing.

Nobody can predict the future, if they can they are working in the wrong field and you would own the companies instead of working for a company.
Saying MS wouldn't pass iOS without leaving the benefit of the doubt you would be just as bad as them. All these predictions are just best guesses, and yes I do see Windows quite possibly be able to catch up to iOS and maybe even pass it in the future with Win8 mobile if they played their cards right.
As to response to your Nokia statement. How long did it take Apple to grow to where it is? iPhone started 1/9/2007, only took a few years to dominate the market. Within the same time frame why can't Nokia get into high end market while still dominate the low end market? With Nokia's distribution abilities and if MS is able to provide awesome OS for its phone, why can't MS OS replace iOS as dominant phone operating system?

[iLoveWindows&iPhone]

How has no one mentioned Smart Glass?? This technology is AWESOME! If Microsoft has plans to overtake/dominate the phone market....it sure seems to me that they would NEVER release this tech for iPhone, Droid, etc. They would be using it as a unique feature to get users to switch to a Windows phone...But they are not. Perhaps down the road, once everyone can't live without Smart Glass, they will make it Windows Phone specific, but I just don't see that happening. It really looks like Microsoft is looking to dominate the living room, based off of their e3 conference, not the OS market....And currently, they have a HUGE lead over Apple TV/Apple HDTV, in this department.

[xDarKBirD]

Microsoft can't dominate with smartphones. Apple FTW but I seriously hate their metro style software.

[Mrteacup]

To bad apple patented the biggest smartphone share of 2016

[XenoSaber]

Whatever they are smoking, I want some!! It must be some great stuff left over from Woodstock or something that's been aging nicely.

[Gamemaster77]

Wouldn't doubt it. Having control of an existing market can do wonders for getting into a new one.

[MetallicaFan1991]

Lol as if.

[cmwade77]

Hmm....I would like to know exactly what they base that prediction on. I think Apple has something that other providers don't and that is a lot of customers that have already had an iPhone and have bought software on it. Most consumers will not want to buy their software all over again on another platform.

Now, if they figure out a way that a customer can prove they purchased a certain title on the iPhone, then provide for free on another platform, it would make this a moot point.

[carlbgc]

Have any of you guys used WP7?

After 4 years of iPhones I ditched mine 2 months ago for a Lumia 800. iOS is looking so old and tired with its dull grey and blue navigation bars. WP7 is a very sexy and modern OS.

WP7 has the polish of iOS, without the hardware limitations. It has almost the freedom of Android, without the chaos.

I see WP7 taking off big time once people actually realise it exists (Has anyone ever seen an ad for WP7? PICK UP YOUR GAME MICROSOFT).