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05-25-2013, 05:31 AM #1
Analyst Forecast Points Towards First Ever Year-On-Year Decline for iPad Shipments
The combination of seasonality and heightened competition from Android and Microsoft device makers is why shipments of Apple’s iPad may see a year-on-year drop for the first time since its debut in 2010 according to KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In a recent note to investors, Kuo said that overall iPad shipments will experience a quarter-to-quarter decline of 20% to 25% or 10% to 15% year-on-year, for the second quarter of 2013. The analyst based his prediction on sell-through, which is expected to hit 14 to 15 million units for the three month period.
The dip in shipments is thought to be a result of a slew of cheap Android tablet offerings this year, as well as a high comparison base from 2012 when the third-generation iPad launched. Driving the decline is lowered iPad mini shipments, which are believed to see a roughly 40% quarter-on-quarter drop. Overall, Kuo is forecasting a sell-in of around 12.7 million units for the three month period ending in June. Breaking the numbers down by model, the iPad mini is expected to see 6.2 million units shipped, while the latest fourth-generation iPad will see 4.5 million units. The entry-level iPad 2 will likely come in at around 2 million units shipped.
Last but not least, Kuo notes that the third quarter will see growth as seasonality and an expected launch of a fifth-generation iPad boost shipments to first-quarter levels. However, the analyst points out that the success is highly contingent on how attractive the supposedly slimmed-down “iPad 5” is to consumers. A recent study conducted by IDC saw the iPad’s share of the overall table market dip to 40% during the first quarter of the year. Year-over-year growth was still positive at 65% but rival manufacturers Samsung and ASUS saw their share of their sector jump 283% and 350% from the year ago period, respectively.
The second quarter iPad forecast doesn’t look so positive so hopefully Apple has something new and innovative lined up for its next-gen models in the iPad lineup to turn things around.
Source: KGI Securities via AppleInsider
05-25-2013, 08:32 AM #2
Maybe they sell less and less because more and more people already have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th gen iPad, or a iPad mini... Not everyone springs for the newest, best, hypest model every time apple bumps up it hardware specs... The iPad debuted in 2010 and we are about to have a 5th gen. soon and a 2nd gen. mini... Maybe more drastic upgrades to the iPad each gen. would boost sales...
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05-25-2013, 09:22 AM #3
05-25-2013, 09:28 AM #4
05-25-2013, 09:42 AM #5
Its also due to the jailbreak ability and the lack of. People want a device they can do what they want with. If Apple refuse to let people customize it and they see their friends with customized Android tablets guess what they will get.
The Android can do pretty much stock what a jailbroken iPad/iPhone can do so why get an iPhone and be limited?
The old saying "Apple has better apps" no longer is valid. I've seen some Android versions of apps get updates recently where the Apple version hasn't had an update for 2 years and desperately needs them.
Devs are moving from Apple to Android so its becoming the better platform. The only reason its not as good as Apples devices is because Apple sued them and forced them to release inferior devices so they didn't get sued again. Pretty stupid when Apple get their devices made my Samsung but Samsung cant use the same screens? They know all the workings of the iPhones as they made the parts...
Because of all the lawsuits many people wont give Apple anymore money so they wont buy their devices. I'm just hoping there are more smart people out there that also refuse to give a stupid company money to waste on lawsuits instead of better devices.
05-25-2013, 01:50 PM #6
There will always be a solid market for Apple's products. However, this article fails to point out how Apple vs Android is akin to BMW vs Chevy. Apple's products command a higher price and those products are much higher margin than the competition. Apple makes more on the sale of a single iOS product than Samsung or Asus make on the sale of a handful of competing devices. Developers are also more invested in the Apple platform than Android because Apple owners spend more on apps th Android customers. That goes for freemium and premium apps alike. You can get an Android device on contract with nothing up front or a buy one get one free deal. Apple doesn't need to peddle their wares at cost just to turn a profit. Their are a number of high end android devices, but those devices don't make up the bulk of android devices out there. Let's face it, android is the poor man's platform. This is just like how Windows dominates the PC market, yet Apple makes the most profit in the PC market. You want two smartphones for $50 on contract? Buy android. You want a premium product with premium support? Buy Apple.
05-25-2013, 06:05 PM #7
05-25-2013, 10:00 PM #8
05-25-2013, 10:46 PM #9
I didn't by an iPad until the mini came out. I just couldn't spend the $500+. I picked up the first Kindle Fire and enjoyed it for a year until the mini came out, but, even rooted and running a current jelly bean, I am sold on the Apple eco system. At an rate, I started with the $200 vs. $500 price tag, due to simple economics. Now, I have the iPad mini and wouldn't go back!
Point: there are plenty who don't need to spend more for the Apple product when they can get something perfectly fitting for their needs, and this starting at around $180.
05-26-2013, 11:27 AM #10
First of all, you can't compare vehicles to tablets. That's just silly.
Apple commands the higher prices because they can (at least for now? Who knows..). Android was not a mature platform (and to some degree is still somewhat inferior), and hardware was nowhere near the quality and performance consumers could get with an iDevice. Now that we're seeing some real competition in the hardware specs between the two platforms, Apple has begun to lose market share - especially with price being a motivating factor. Moving on...
Android device absolutely do make up most of the smartphone market. The iPhone 5, for example, only commands an estimated 13% of all shipped smartphones in Q4 2012. That's more than any ONE android device, but to be accurate, you must count all devices running Android. So 100% - 13% = ... I'll let you fill in that answer. Google is your friend.
Speaking of Android, have you actually used it installed on a high-end smartphone for more than 30 minutes in your local store? Samsung's latest line of devices run Jellybean 4.1.1+ quite well. Multiple online reviews have given it high marks for performance and useability, and I tend to agree. There is very little, if anything I miss about my iPhone, other than perhaps the IPS display on a bright day. I won't even speak about customization options other than to ask a simple question: When was the last time you swapped out your keyboard on your iPhone? Thought so. How about map problems with Google Maps? uhha.. Poor-man's OS? Was that an attempt at humor or is your head really that far down in the sand?
Finally, it's absolutely laughable how you think Apple makes more in the PC market than Windows does? Rather than waste more of my time quoting various research, I'll just say "PROVE IT." Ah what the hell, it took one Google search... so here you go:
This is from Gartner. If you don't know who they are, go look 'em up. They're well-respected market analysts.
Shipments of PC's Q1, 2013:
HP: 3.4M, 24.2% market share
Dell: 2.9M 20.8% market share
Apple: 1.6M 11.6% market share
(I'm not gonna list all of them - the above makes my point: Apple has less market share than HP or Dell.
Apple's 1012/1013 growth in the PC market (if you can call it that - the PC market has been shrinking for over a year now, giving way to more portable devices like the iPad and other tablets).
Apple: -7.5% (yes, shrinkage!)
Others manufacturers are even worse, except for Lenovo, which gained 13%. Still, HP shipped 4.6 Million PC's compared to Apple's 1.5 Million in 2012.
Bottom Line: Apple is suffering along with everyone else in the PC market, yet PC's sales and earnings across all manufacturers still outpace Apple. Apple does not own the PC market, and they're losing market share in the tablet and smartphone market as the Android platform matures and hardware catches up to Apple's high standards.
Before you spout, make sure you know what you're talking about.
Last edited by Taranis17; 05-26-2013 at 11:53 AM.
05-26-2013, 02:02 PM #11
Pie chart of the day: Apple's oversize share of PC profits - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech
Android vs iOS: I never said Apple sold more Smartphones than the competition. I said they made more profit than the competition. Here are sources to substantiate that claim:
Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win - Seeking Alpha
Apple, Samsung: Smartphone profit still only a two player game | BGR
Apple, Samsung Chew Up Smartphone Profits - Mobility - Smartphones -
Subjectivity: Reviews for Android devices historically have been inferior to Apple's devices, but steadily those reviews have improved and often Android devices review as well as Apple's devices. Did it ever occur to you that reviewers themselves have slowly learned to use Android devices and are now better able to review them? By the same token that suggests that the initial positive reviews for Apple's devices stem from the ease of use of said devices? Are you the kind person who is cruel enough to present your mother, father, or grandparent with an Android device and leave them to figure it out on their own? Do you not think that an Apple device would have served them better and provided a more intuitive, and thus positive, experience? Android is a poor choice for non-tech savvy people. The iPhone is, after all, the smartphone for stupid people. It's also the phone for everyone non-tech savvy, regardless of intelligence. The only reason Apple's market share doesn't mirror its profit share is because Android devices are vastly cheaper to obtain, and thus available to a larger market of consumers. But wait! Techies also love the iOS devices. That is why most of us frequent this website! So remind me again how the car analogy wasn't appropriate?They can have my jailbreak when they pry it from my cold dead fingers.
05-26-2013, 06:38 PM #12
My wife has a kindle fire and she likes it for reading..... and that is all. IF she is doing ANYTHING else she is on one of the iPads or her MBA. My kids have a choice of 3 diff computers, 3 diff iPads and a couple iPhone(used as iTouch) and of course a kindle fire. 10/10 they go for one of the iPads /iPhone. The kindle is great for reading but doing anything else on it is a lesson in futility as it's clunky, slow, and not "refined" at all. I haven't used other tablets for any length of time, just in stores and I have yet to find one that is as smooth in gameplay and it's overall use than the iPad. I'll be getting a retina mini when they come out and finding a worthy situation/person to donate my OiPad. I think apple's profit margin is insane and things need to come back inline to the consumer when it comes to their product cost. One man's opinion.
05-27-2013, 04:52 AM #13
Yes! I am thrilled that the marketplace, namely consumers have voted with their dollars. Punishment in the market-place is the minimum that Apple deserves.
I am waiting to buy an "iPad Mini 2" but will only buy the second version of the iPad Mini that Apple releases. However my purchase of another Apple product will never happen, unless and until a jail-break is available for it.
The days of Apple putting out minimalistic improvements in terms of hardware and iOS software releases must come to an end.
Thank God for competition which is the only 'freedom' that consumers have left in this world economy today.
Apple's management team and key decision makers for the most part are in my opinion (and so many others) a greed-infested, lackluster group of rat-like humans that seek to create only profits at the expense of consumer choices, desired features while laughing all the way to offshore tax-havens and return little or no value to the economy as a whole.
When Apple's competition rises up to fill the void and provide consumers more choices, more freedom and much better value for every dollar spent on competitors products, Apple responds with slimy preposterous lawsuits.
The market capitalization of Apple has so thankfully dropped by the hundreds of billions! Yes, payback Apple, punishment in what is left of our so called free-market system! Get rid of Apple management!
All the credit and greatness belongs to the Apple employees at the mid and lower levels and to the developers of iOS and iOS apps and the great Cydia community!
Time is no longer on your side Apple, the rotting fish heads at the top of Apple must go!
Poor man's platform?, snobbish and elitist attitude on your part. The glory days are over for Apple if they do not step up their game. Apple has already started on the same trajectory that RIM aka Blackberry fell victim to because of the iPhone!
Things run full circle much quicker in technology with a 5 year span of dominance being the current normal trend for market segment domination. Apple keeps reaching out for short-term profits, via slick gimmick-based, fan-addictive marketing that is now failing, and failing fast.
Just purchased 2 HTC One phones for my sons. Yes the HTC One phone which blows away anything Apple ever created or I am worried will be able to create. The S4 is selling millions upon millions more units per month than iPhone 5. Take that Apple, you let Samsung outpace you in features and innovation. I am no fan of Samsung and WILL NOT own their products period. I prefer Sony, Apple, Fisher&Paykel, Mercedes, Toyota etc... when parting with my money.
Look, the iPhone 6 and iOS 7 needs to be break-through technology, and have game-changing innovation or the "self-induced slow-bleed" that Apple has incurred as of late will turn into a hemorrhage.
R.I.P. Apple 2018?
Last edited by zeppy; 05-27-2013 at 06:03 AM.
05-27-2013, 01:57 PM #14
They can have my jailbreak when they pry it from my cold dead fingers.
05-27-2013, 02:34 PM #15
05-27-2013, 02:36 PM #16
I like spending my money on great products from great companies. Apple needs to rid itself of their short-sighted, greed-infested, arrogant and control-freak management team.
You are not a great product, so you shall not be purchased.
05-27-2013, 08:55 PM #17