I'll be placing my upgrade order for my 3GS tomorrow, through AT&T.
Simply cannot live without Jailbreaking it, as I've grown too used to iRealSMS and a few others apps.
Now.. blackra1n looks to be a buggy solution, so I'd like to skip it if at all possible.
I'm running Windows, so PwnageTool is out of reach currently. (Unless I can figure out how to get OSX running with VMWare or whatever)
Blackrain was not buggy with my 3 phones. Ran perfectly first try. But you may have a new problem being that the new 3GS's are being shipped that cannot be jailbroken at all...