Official NBA Thread

[davebu]

Ya, dont like that. I can see why because of the tax, but still.

its a good move from the Lakers perspective, he won't turn the tables and bring them a title, but if Gasol is traded they will do in in a heart beat. They won't til he is gone though. Lakers really wishing right now to get Rondo for Gasol and then get Beasley for a draft pick.

[celeron]

SiriNBA tweak released on Bigboss repo

[Simon]

Already installed

[punjabi212]

LeBron having greatest season ever?
Will LeBron surpass MJ's record PER mark this season? (PER Diem: March 1, 2012)

31.89.

That number may not mean much to many of you, but for those of us who track player efficiency rating it represents the hallowed mark of one Michael Jeffrey Jordan in 1987-88, the best mark in the game's modern history. (PER only tracks back to 1977-78, when the league began tracking individual turnovers. While we can estimate that it would have been really, really good, we don't know what Wilt Chamberlain's or Oscar Robertson's PER would have been without individual steals or blocks or offensive/defensive rebound splits.)

PER, for the uninitiated, is a rating of a player's per-minute statistical effectiveness that I developed several years ago. The formula is too long and complex to explain here, but you can learn all about it at this link.

And this season, that mark is in jeopardy.

With half a season in the books, LeBron James' PER stands at 32.41, which not only eclipses Jordan's best season but does so by a full half-point. While we emphasize that this puts him on track for the best regular season in the game's modern history -- James still has much to prove come June -- it nonetheless would represent a spectacular accomplishment.

It also puts another notch in LeBron's career file; even if he doesn't end up breaking Jordan's record, he's likely to add another 31-plus season to his file and give himself three of the top seven all-time PER seasons; Jordan has the other four (see chart). Any way you slice it, he's putting himself in some fairly lofty company.

TOP ALL-TIME PER SEASONS
Player Year PPG RPG APG MPG PER
LeBron James 2011-12 27.4 8.1 6.8 36.7 32.41
Michael Jordan 1987-88 35.0 5.5 5.9 40.4 31.89
Michael Jordan 1990-91 31.5 6.0 5.5 37.0 31.79
LeBron James 2008-09 28.4 7.6 7.2 37.7 31.76
Michael Jordan 1989-90 33.6 6.9 6.3 39.0 31.31
Michael Jordan 1988-89 32.5 8.0 8.0 40.2 31.29
LeBron James 2009-10 29.7 7.3 8.6 39.0 31.19

That, of course, raises all kinds of questions, and I'm going to try to answer a few of them. Let's start from the top:

What are the odds he actually does it?

Still much less than 50-50, I would argue. We have to remember that we're in a shortened season, so James has played only 1,212 minutes -- barely a third of his total in 2008-09, when he threatened the mark until the final week of the season.

In 1,212 minutes we can still see the effects of some outliers, and I'd argue James' shooting percentages fall in that category. While a big chunk of his improvement in true shooting percentage results simply from the decision to shoot fewer 3s, his 56.3 percent mark on 2s still exceeds his career norms, and his 41.3 percent on 3s vastly exceeds it. Additionally, he's at 77.3 percent from the line, bettering his career mark of 74.6 percent.

It's possible he keeps this up for an entire season, but as always the prudent way to bet is on the longer-term trend he established in the other 25,000 minutes of his career. Moreover, those numbers don't need to dip much to have him fall short of Jordan -- when you're dealing with "best all time," even a merely great performance isn't good enough. For instance, if James has a PER of 31.00 in the second half of the season -- which itself would be one of the best marks of all time -- he'll end up falling short.

Second, the last week of the season may hurt his cause. In April of 2009, LeBron's Cavs had the top seed wrapped up and put it in cruise control over the final few games; a coasting James hurt his numbers in those games and lost any shot of catching Jordan. As long as Chicago and Oklahoma City push the Heat for the league's top record this won't be a factor, but should those two fall off the pace then James may again see a late dip. Alternatively, it's possible the Heat will fall off the pace and find themselves locked into the East's second seed.

How is he doing this?

At first glance, it doesn't seem right that James' mark would be so lofty. After all, his per-game averages pale beside the ones he put up in his final two seasons in Cleveland.

This is where factors like adjusting for minutes and normalizing to league averages become important. First, because James is playing only 36.7 minutes per game in Miami rather than the 37.7 he played in 2008-09 or the whopping 39.0 he played in 2009-10, his per-game averages take a bit of a hit.

The more important effect, however, is that of lockoutball. With shooting percentages and offensive efficiency down around the league, it's made what James has done -- crushing his career high in true shooting percentage at 62.4 (his career average is 52.8) -- that much more impressive. Less obviously, James has also gone wild on the boards. His 13.0 rebound rate is the best of any true small forward (Dominic McGuire often plays the 4) and by far the best of his career.

This comparison can be seen more obviously by comparing LeBron to his peers. Take Kevin Durant, for instance, a supernatural scoring machine who has led the league in scoring the past two seasons and annually posts true shooting percentages around 60. Well, James averages more points per minute than Durant this year and has him beat in true shooting percentage, too. Add in that he has by far the best rebound rate of any wing player and that he has the secondary stats of a point guard, ranking 11th in assists and ninth in steals, and it becomes easier to see why this half-season is historic.

Sum it up, and James has dramatically improved his effectiveness as a scorer with no drop-off in the broad-based dominance that had already made him one of the best players in history.

What about Wade?

The most interesting part of LeBron's stats is comparing how he plays with and without Dwyane Wade on the court. Due to an early-season injury to Wade, LeBron has played nearly half his minutes this season without his tag-team partner, and one could argue that's helped him revert to Cleveland mode and taking over games himself.

The potential drawback, obviously, is that a healthy Wade could be a drag on James' stats in the second half of the season. Both this year and last year, James averages only a shade over 15 shots per 36 minutes with Wade on the court, according to this StatsCube comparison on NBA.com. By comparison, James takes 20.3 shots per 36 minutes and more free throws when Wade is off the floor, and his assists increase, too.

That said, the visible anti-synergy between the two a year ago has been replaced with a much better understanding of how to take advantage of each other's strengths. Wade now averages the same number of shots whether James is playing with him or not, although the non-LeBron sample is small (just 153 minutes). Meanwhile, James' field goal percentages zoom up to 58 percent when he plays with Wade, and the difference in shots when Wade is with him is much less than a year ago.

Nonetheless, at the margin one wonders if Wade's health will determine whether James can ultimately set the record. The only way to pull it off is to use a ton of possessions with extremely high efficiency; LeBron has the second item in the bag, but sharing the ball with Wade could still leave him a bit short on the first criteria. Even with the increased efficiency playing with Wade, it's difficult to make up a 25 percent shortfall in shots.

Sum it up and that's one of many reasons that, even with James on pace to crush the PER record, the smart money is still on Mike. But whether he gets there or not, it's been an amazing half-season from James, and one that hasn't received nearly the credit it should have.

By John Hollinger

[TreyATX]

Hope at the end of it all he's won a title.....which I'm sure he will. Boys got some game
It would of meant more to do it in Cleveland but at the end of the day a rings a ring I guess.

[mortopher]

Hollinger is a moron so his PER means nothing to me

[punjabi212]

The NBA Under Pressure - TrueHoop Blog - ESPN

[Paco]

The 6th man of the year to the d-league

[TreyATX]

Yup, pretty sad. I don't see Lamar getting much confidence from this move. They say they're doing it so he can get his legs back under him. I guess we'll see what happens.

[punjabi212]

NBA -- Making a deal for five teams in need of one - ESPN

[Simon]

looks like no d league for Odom after all

[TreyATX]

looks like no d league for Odom after all

Yeah that didn't last long did it.

[TreyATX]

Good win for LA today.

[punjabi212]

How about Rondo. 19 pts, 17 rebs, 20 ast.

[TreyATX]

How about Rondo. 19 pts, 17 rebs, 20 ast.

Yeah, there's no way Bos should even attempt to trade Rondo, that'd be a stupid move if they want to be considered one of the elites.

[celeron]

Lakers need Rondo and kick out fisher

[Simon]

I wish

[TreyATX]

Well I wouldn't kick Fisher out cause all in all he is a Laker and I hope he ends his career as such but I do think someone else needs to start. Rondo would be cool to get but I wouldn't want to lose anyone to do it. Boston wouldn't let him go for cheap.

[celeron]

I dont think fisher would stay there while being bench player

[TreyATX]

I dont think fisher would stay there while being bench player

I'm sure he'd accept it, he's a smart guy, he knows his limitations. And management would keep him cause despite age or any other factor he always seems to come up big when it matters. He knows how to win and that's a good commodity to have for any team.