According to a market analyst, the iPad is poised to make Apple more money than all Mac sales put together as soon as 2012. That's the prediction of the amusingly named "Deagol" Tello, which is being quoted approvingly by Philip Elmer-DeWitt
magazine's Apple 2.0 blog.
The iPad has been a runaway success, despite some early naysayers; one of them, of course, being Steve Jobs himself, who once famously asked why people would want to buy something that would only be good for surfing the web from the bathroom
. The tablet has been credited for the 73% improvement in Apple's retail sales
over the past year, and Apple has already significantly repositioned its business to focus more on the iPad and other iOS devices.
Tello - who for some reason goes by the name of the first hobbit who found the One Ring only to be killed by Gollum
- uses a financial formula of his own design to estimate Apple's future business potential. Tello posted a chart to his blog back in April
showing his analysis, which actually showed less iPad sales than have already been seen. So it's possible that the updated chart he posted today
may actually underestimate the iPad's future sales, which he's guessing could reach $18 billion US by the end of 2011. Mac sales, he thinks, will total $20 billion by that time, with iPads pulling ahead in 2012.
The analysis shows the iPhone continuing to be the main revenue driver for Apple, bringing in $32.7 billion in 2011. iPod sales will begin to decline, having flattened out recently, while iTunes, software, and peripheral revenue will continue to increase. Take it all with a grain of salt, of course: as the disclosure on Deagol's blog states, he has "long AAPL shares," indicating that he's a stockholder in Apple rather than a short-term speculator.