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  • IDC: Windows Phone Platform to Pass iOS By 2016 in Smartphone Share


    Only a short time ago, such a projection would have appeared to come form the most delusional of Windows fans. But circumstances have changed. And now one of the most respected research firms in the mobile industry has stepped up to make a bold prediction about the future of iOS and the Windows Phone platform.

    On Wednesday, IDC projected that Microsoft's Windows Phone will overshoot Apple's iOS in terms of the worldwide smartphone market share in 2016. In other words, four years from now, the global mobile landscape
    could be drastically altered from what we know today.

    "Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape," says Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. "Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems as well as others will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements."

    Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia's strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia's foothold in emerging markets is maintained.
    All told, there's no shortage of positive headlines today for the burgeoning mobile platform. Earlier today, Millennial Media seemed to hop on board the Windows Phone momentum train by announcing a new Windows Phone SDK for developers.

    "The number of apps in the Windows Phone Marketplace has grown by 60 percent, to nearly 80,000 from January to March of this year according to the Windows Phone Blog," said Matt Gillis, SVP of Global Monetization Solutions at Millennial Media. "During that same time, they report that the number of customer stores around the world nearly doubled, providing 54 markets for developers to sell their apps."

    Sources: IDC, Millennial Media
    This article was originally published in forum thread: IDC: Windows Phone Platform to Pass iOS By 2016 in Smartphone Share started by Michael Essany View original post
    Comments 29 Comments
    1. unison999's Avatar
      unison999 -
      Quote Originally Posted by cmwade77 View Post
      Hmm....I would like to know exactly what they base that prediction on. I think Apple has something that other providers don't and that is a lot of customers that have already had an iPhone and have bought software on it. Most consumers will not want to buy their software all over again on another platform.

      Now, if they figure out a way that a customer can prove they purchased a certain title on the iPhone, then provide for free on another platform, it would make this a moot point.

      I can not tell you the software I bought before when I had previous gen iPhones, nor would I care to reinstall them since I do not even recall what they are. 90% of the apps on my iPhones are free, I would imagine they would be free on Window's OS as well. If there is something important enough that I need on the phone, if it is useful I would not mind purchasing it again. Since I would sell my iPhone I would sell my iTunes account with it (removing all private and personal info) because I have no use for it, then it is just a matter of repurchasing on the new platform.
    1. desepticon's Avatar
      desepticon -
      Just like the Zune killed the iPod......oh wait.
    1. *T*'s Avatar
      *T* -
      WP7 is interesting, in that it is not interesting yet continues to attract users. It's beige squares and dull opaque backgrounds somehow lure us into them. I think that the people heading to WP7 are a niche market. iOS and Android are so much more powerful and advance than WP7, it's almost pointless to compared them. I predict that Apple will lose growth in iPhones by 2014. The only reason growth is going on now is because of market/carrier expansion. WP7 will continue to grow, but won't make it past 10% market share by 2016.
    1. MaStA819's Avatar
      MaStA819 -
      Oh the fanboys...lol.

      I'm done with Apple after this contract is up on my iPhone 4. I'm sick of having to deal with Apple overriding my ability to do what I want with my phone after every patch and then having to wait for a new jailbreak to come out, etc. Just another way Apple tries controlling everything in the world. You do it their way or go elsewhere is the drift I get from them. I'm not a mac fan, but I've enjoyed the iPhone for several years, but I'm done as well. I'm not stating this as a sob story and I know some fanboy will just say see ya later, but whatever.

      I've heard great things about windows phone and to be honest I like Android on my HP Touchpad as an OS better than iOS anyhow. So either way windows phone or android will be next in line for me.
    1. domenicp's Avatar
      domenicp -
      The title doesn't match the article. Article says that WP7 will be the number 2 OS, and nothing about surpassing iOS. Granted, if iOS falls to the number 3 spot, then yes the title would be correct. But that is not what the article is saying. Please fix misleading title.
    1. subywrex's Avatar
      subywrex -
      Quote Originally Posted by iLoveWindows&iPhone View Post
      How has no one mentioned Smart Glass?? This technology is AWESOME! If Microsoft has plans to overtake/dominate the phone market....it sure seems to me that they would NEVER release this tech for iPhone, Droid, etc. They would be using it as a unique feature to get users to switch to a Windows phone...But they are not. Perhaps down the road, once everyone can't live without Smart Glass, they will make it Windows Phone specific, but I just don't see that happening. It really looks like Microsoft is looking to dominate the living room, based off of their e3 conference, not the OS market....And currently, they have a HUGE lead over Apple TV/Apple HDTV, in this department.

      First time Ive seen the concept of smart glass was air playing a car game off my iPad to my apple tv. Only difference is apple doesn't make a set top gaming consol
    1. discostar's Avatar
      discostar -
      Microsoft keeps pushing this bogus story. As long as there are the same Windows headaches on the phones as they have on the desktop- IT'S NOT HAPPENING.

      Developers are not embrassing Windows mobile OS. All the suckers who get tricked into buying one will join the Android users begging developers to release their content in the Android store because it's mostly knock offs and shovelware.
    1. Rasta4Jah420's Avatar
      Rasta4Jah420 -
      Quote Originally Posted by cockyjeremy View Post
      *Yawn* It's Microsoft, they'll screw up huge sometime before 2016 and it'll be near 0% market share. They're the company that can screw up anything.
      Are you retarded? Microsoft has SO many more machines out there than Apple...the business world is built off of Microsoft. I love my iPhone, but Apple is not Enterprise-Ready. CIO's may be tinkering with iPads, but ONLY because you can use Citrix Reciever and Connect to a WINDOWS desktop.
    1. TheDirtyDiddler's Avatar
      TheDirtyDiddler -
      A windows phone would be my 2nd choice if I absolutely had to ditch Apple. I actually don't hate the one's I've seen.