[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imFfITYWiOE]YouTube - Brian Marshall is bullish on Apple[/ame]
Numerous outlets are reporting today on a somewhat startling assertion by an analyst on Bloomberg TV, stating that Apple's exclusive arrangement with AT&T as its sole iPhone service provider will come to an end in June of 2010. He also stated that Apple would be receiving $300 from future partners, rather than the $450 per phone it currently gets from AT&T.
Brian Marshall is an analyst with Broadpoint AmTech, the information technology, clean energy and defense group within research firm Broadpoint.Gleicher. Marshall named Verizon as the most likely carrier that Apple would start working with after the end of AT&T's exclusivity. Recent rumors of a new iPhone model that would be compatible with Verizon's network would tend to support this assertion, but there has been no confirmation from either Apple or Verizon of any of this.
Little is known about the details of AT&T's arrangement with Apple. When the phone was first introduced back in 2007, reports suggested that the exclusivity deal would last until 2012. More recently, reports have suggested that the original deal was slated to end in 2009, but was increased by a year when AT&T offered higher subsidies to Apple.
Marshall says that the current subsidy paid by AT&T is $450, and that the payout would drop to $300 once other U.S. providers start carrying the iPhone. Apple has claimed that it has been successful in other countries in maintaining income levels even after subsidies drop due to non-exclusivity, because they have been able to sell a higher overall number of phones.
In a separate report today, AppleInsider noted that the end of exclusivity in France has led to the iPhone being the top selling smartphone in that country, accounting for over 40% of sales. And Engadget quotes a report by research firm Bernstein which indicates that Apple's "value market share" in the UK and France "has increased from 32 percent in the latest quarter from 21 percent just three months earlier," when both countries had only one iPhone carrier.