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  • Analyst: Cheaper, Better iPhones in June, Apple Even Richer


    Saying that price is the "biggest barrier" to the iPhone growing in popularity, a financial analyst predicts lower-priced iPhones in the model's expected refresh this June. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty also said that the new model will feature new technology, including what is vaguely referred to as "gesture-based functionality," and that this could propel Apple stock to as much as $435 per share (it is selling at $202 as of this writing). In a separate report, a different analyst predicted that half of Apple's revenue in 2010 would come from iPhone sales.

    Apple's pattern has always been to drop the price of existing models whenever they upgrade the line. Last year, for example, the price of the iPhone 3G dropped to $99 in the US when the 3GS came out, featuring video recording, a compass, line-speed encryption, voice control, etc. In her report to clients today which was revealed by the Fortune Brainstorm Tech blog on CNNMoney, Huberty released the completely unsurprising resuts of a survey that most people hesitated buying an iPhone because of its price, especially where there is no carrier subsidy. She claimed that Apple could get up to 10% of the mobile phone market worldwide by dropping what is called the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of the phone, which would include things like initial purchase price, wireless plan and repair. Huberty also told her clients that she anticipates Apple to sell 6 million iPads this year, much higher than Wall Street's consensus of 3 to 4 million.

    Separately, Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with Bernstein Research, in a note to investors reported by the Barron's Tech Trader Daily blog, said that Apple is on track to sell 45 to 50 million iPhones this year, which would be more than double the 20.7 million iPhones sold last year. This would bring in 45 to 50% of Apple’s total revenue, up from 30% in 2009. Sacconaghi also predicted that Apple will sell 2.2 million iPads in 2010 and 6.8 million the following year.

    Even by the lowest estimates, Apple is poised to make a wad of money in the coming couple of years. The company is already sitting on a cash pile of about $25 billion US, and sources present at the Apple shareholder meeting this week reported that Steve Jobs said he doesn't intend to use the money to buy back stock or pay dividends to investors. Instead, according to the mercurial CEO, the cash will be used for "big, bold moves" such as acquisitions of new technology. “We are a large enough business now that, in order to really move the needle, we have to be thinking pretty bold," he said.
    This article was originally published in forum thread: Analyst: Cheaper, Better iPhones in June, Apple Even Richer started by Paul Daniel Ash View original post
    Comments 49 Comments
    1. Imahottguy's Avatar
      Imahottguy -
      I saw mention of iPhone3,1 in the 3.1.2 firmware. So hopefully it will not be just a refresh. Also noticed iProd1,0 and iProd1,1 (Tablet i assume) I just love how when an analyst opens their mouth, it makes the news over here. I'm an analyst too!

      Here's what I see:

      There is going to be at least a 150-300% increase of stories like these in the coming months. There will even be a lot of talk about a front facing cam that has around a 42% chance of making it to final production. Apples stock will rise anywhere from $1-$100000000/share after the announcement of the new iphone, which could take place as soon as now, and as late as 2012. Unfortunately, info like this is all BS. It is what we insiders call SPECULATION and is really more of a gut feeling rather than fact. But no less, it will be reported on Gizmodo, Engadget and ESPECIALLY here. I suppose I will stop reading the news here for a while again /sigh/


      It will be called iPhone: Jesus Ed.
    1. hollow0's Avatar
      hollow0 -
      Quote Originally Posted by MacJax50 View Post
      10-1 apple will eventually either start there own wireless or data company and or aquire AT&T. That's why there staying exclusive ..
      lol Apple Wireless. Man that would be really scary.
    1. wannabprogramma's Avatar
      wannabprogramma -
      Quote Originally Posted by dale1v View Post
      As I do economics as a degree now, I kick myself for not buying stock when I was 10 years old.
      haha I'm 14 and started buying stocks about 2 years ago....first one I bought was Apple just cause I'm a nerd...but turned out to be a good choice....
    1. MikeT674's Avatar
      MikeT674 -
      I'm somehow convinced in my head that of the new iPhone does not have the A4 processor I have a feeling where gonna see a snapdragon processor and I'm gonna have to go with 512mb ram
    1. sziklassy's Avatar
      sziklassy -
      Quote Originally Posted by Conas View Post
      The question isn't whether or not there will be a 4th generation iPhone, the question is "What will they call the 4th generation iPhone??"

      iPhone 4G - Nope. Totally implies there's a 4g network. The 2nd generation was called 3G
      iPhone G4 - I've read some people call it this already, and I don't know if it's a typo or not, but I like the ring to it
      iPhone A4 - Perhaps. I dunno how big their new chip is, but maybe it can fit in the iPhone?
      iPhone 3GS2 - I hope not
      Frankly I think they shot themselves in the foot with naming the iphone. They should have just kept it the iphone. They don't rename their ipod lines (ie you don't have an ipod nano 5g, although we still sometimes call it that way), or really any other product. The iPhone is the only "modern" product of theirs, so far, that has been renamed on a yearly basis.
    1. jme2712's Avatar
      jme2712 -
      Quote Originally Posted by sziklassy View Post
      Frankly I think they shot themselves in the foot with naming the iphone. They should have just kept it the iphone. They don't rename their ipod lines (ie you don't have an ipod nano 5g, although we still sometimes call it that way), or really any other product. The iPhone is the only product of theirs, so far, that has been renamed on a yearly basis.
      I'm really not sure what they are thinking with their naming schemes. I mean every iphone just says "iphone" on the back of the case, but they've added the 3g, 3gs to the packaging and the marketing for each release. When you think about it, though, it doesn't matter what Apple calls it we will still buy the refreshed phon and be proud owners of another fine apple product.
    1. cpkirkley's Avatar
      cpkirkley -
      + 1.

      Naming the second iPhone the 3g was one of the more nonsensical things they had done up to that point. Set the wrong precedent. Then the doubled the damage with the S moniker. Stick with one naming scheme, not two.
    1. Jgamble317's Avatar
      Jgamble317 -
      Quote Originally Posted by The Maestro View Post
      The current $199 tag isn't bad and I don't want it lowered, they need to lower the rate plan cause that's what would keep any logical person away from the iPhone

      But if they had to make a $99 version they should make it in **** brown so everyone knows who the cheap bastards are
      ..umm i kinda actually wouldn't mind having a nice Gloss Brown iPhone backing... just me tho. and im not a cheap bastard..
    1. lolcats1's Avatar
      lolcats1 -
      Quote Originally Posted by wannabprogramma View Post
      haha I'm 14 and started buying stocks about 2 years ago....first one I bought was Apple just cause I'm a nerd...but turned out to be a good choice....
      he's not talking about his age. what he's saying is that when he was 10, apple was some cheap stock. and now it isn't.

      as for the stock market, that **** scares me man. it jumps around too much for me to put my muhnees into it, and just see them poof.

      i think i'll just bet on making it through med school
    1. Cowboy's Avatar
      Cowboy -
      The price for the iphone is good where it is at right now and the data package that u have to have with it. They still beat out blackberry and most windows phones after there ridiculous rebates so if they drop the pricing i will be utterly shocked and surprised. Not getting my hopes up.
    1. Vathgol's Avatar
      Vathgol -
      Quote Originally Posted by Jgamble317 View Post
      ..umm i kinda actually wouldn't mind having a nice Gloss Brown iPhone backing... just me tho. and im not a cheap bastard..
      just bc someone wants the price lowered doesnt make them cheap.... I especially am one to not jump all over apple at the release... just like anything else out there.. except the difference bt apple and everyone else is that the pic says it all... Apple is just greedy...

      Ex- A Mac can run all the way up to $3k!! what in the world. whats so special about this computer? when you compare inside for inside its no different than building one..

      The ipad is too expensive.. it needs to be lowered. it makes no sense for a product with 3G and wifi to be almost $800 to only have 64gig of memory.. and we have YET to know the memory on this thing.. oh the big hype is this processor... netbooks fast processors come standard.. apple acts like this is something new and sure enough ppl flock and dont care what it costs just to have something that will come down in price ANYWaY... so sure go buy an ipad or iphone at launch....and ANY smart person in finance knows to get the best deal.. the best deal would be to wait for apple to lower the price.. so while the rest of the world is bragging about the new ipad they paid $800 for when they drop the price then I'll say well I have the SAME thing as you.. the cost for apple in making the iphone is enough to make you mad to not give them any money....therefore the internet is my best friend..

      i will say.. thank you apple for allowing me to pay $29 for your new OS.. now I installed it on my pc's and it runs no different than the overpriced machines you have...

      THANK YOU steve jobs.. you're the best!!
    1. cpkirkley's Avatar
      cpkirkley -
      I just ordered the HD2 from HTC. 1GHz Snapdragon Processor for the win. Just posted my 3G S on craigslist, lol. Sold my 3 year old Macbook Pro and a 3G to get 90 percent of the money.

      If nothing else, gotta LOVE that resale value.
    1. pyromcr's Avatar
      pyromcr -
      i hope they make it cheaper. then i might get it even on att. but if the price stays the same, than i will just keep on waiting for it to come to version...
    1. jaxon1023's Avatar
      jaxon1023 -


      Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company. So then I got a call from him, saying we don't have to worry about money no more. And I said, that's good! One less thing.

    1. JacquesChirac's Avatar
      JacquesChirac -
      Even if they give the iphone out for free they will make a ton of money. All the money comes from those monthly phone bills and the sick contract apple has with AT&T. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they start giving away the lowest end models of the iPhone for free or like $10 or something with a two year contract. It's equivalent to decreasing your monthly bill by just $3-$4 but looks so much better in terms of advertising.
    1. mbeezy81's Avatar
      mbeezy81 -
      Yeah, I think I need to buy some of Apple stock right now!!
    1. Evilsaint's Avatar
      Evilsaint -
      Lol imnt sure if I want a price drop? :d
    1. nathanwilder's Avatar
      nathanwilder -
      Quote Originally Posted by Tylervalo View Post
      So, anyone think it might be a good idea to jump on some apple stock right about now?
      No, it would have been an even better idea to jump on the stock a year and half ago...c'mon, all of us have the stock app on our phone....
    1. iBwizzle's Avatar
      iBwizzle -
      The only reason the iPhone is so popular is because AT&T is subsidizing it! None other but a true Apple_Fan_Boy would pay full retail price. Everybody else are just followers. Apple has 25% of the phone market in the US I heard. That means 1 out of 4 people have the iPhone. Unlike the followers my iPhone is jailbroken and I get the best use of my phone. On top of that I pay $15 for my data plan. The followers pay $30 and are still locked in a contract. Enough said.
    1. M4tt Dam0n's Avatar
      M4tt Dam0n -
      Quote Originally Posted by iBwizzle View Post
      The only reason the iPhone is so popular is because AT&T is subsidizing it! None other but a true Apple_Fan_Boy would pay full retail price. Everybody else are just followers. Apple has 25% of the phone market in the US I heard. That means 1 out of 4 people have the iPhone. Unlike the followers my iPhone is jailbroken and I get the best use of my phone. On top of that I pay $15 for my data plan. The followers pay $30 and are still locked in a contract. Enough said.
      Not really. I like the iPhone very much but I am not an Apple fanboy. I think the ipad, macbook etc all suck. I bought the first iPhone because it was basically everything in one elegant package. Bought the 3G and 3GS but had to buy the 3GS full price because I still had my contract from the 3G... Sold my 3G for $400 so the upgrade cost me $300 which isn't so bad.