Analysts Predict Retina iPad mini to Outsell Thinner iPad 5 if Apple Meets Demand
According to investors, a high-resolution Retina display on the second-gen iteration of Apple’s iPad mini projected to drive demand enough to keep it more popular than a thinner and lighter fifth-gen iPad, though there are concerns about supply constraints leading into the holiday shopping season. Like many others, analyst Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets expects that Apple will unveil a new iPad mini with Retina display at its product unveiling event next week. He also expects a new 9.7-inch iPad with a thinner bezel and lighter frame.
Daryanani sees the Retina iPad mini outselling the fifth-gen iPad by nearly two to one this holiday season, with the iPad mini taking a 65% share of Apple’s overall tablet sales, and the 9.7-inch variety accounting for the remaining 35%. This would require Apple to meet demand for an iPad mini with Retina display, he cautioned. There have been recent reports suggesting that Apple could face supply constraints with its second-gen iPad mini, due to production of the device’s expected Retina display.
Analyst Ben A. Reitzes of Barclays Capital separately said in a note to investors this week that he expects “major product constraints” for a new iPad mini with Retina display. Reitzes said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if Apple was forced to ship the device later in the December quarter as a result. Meanwhile analyst David Evanson of Canaccord Genuity has a completely different take: he expects that the slimmer fifth-gen iPad will actually outsell the Retina iPad mini during the holiday quarter due to anticipated supply constraints. His forecast calls for sales of 12.9 million “iPad 5” units and 11.5 million Retina iPad mini units during the three-month frame. Similar to Reitzes, Evanson believes that Apple could be forced to introduce the new iPad mini with a “delayed launch” in the December quarter. Once Apple can ramp up supply, Evanson sees the Retina iPad mini outselling the full-size fifth-gen iPad 14.4 million to 8.4 million in the March 2014 quarter.
For those of you who didn’t know, Apple officially announced recently that it will hold a media event next week, on October 22, to unveil new products. Updated iPads are widely expected to be the main focus of the event, which will take place at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, California. Apple’s OS X Mavericks and new Mac hardware are also likely to be featured in the keynote. The event is said to kick off at 10:00am Pacific, 1:00pm Eastern next Tuesday.
Source: Barclays Capital
, Canaccord Genuity
, RBC Capital Markets