Analyst Forecast Points Towards First Ever Year-On-Year Decline for iPad Shipments
The combination of seasonality and heightened competition from Android and Microsoft device makers is why shipments of Apple’s iPad may see a year-on-year drop for the first time since its debut in 2010 according to KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In a recent note to investors, Kuo said that overall iPad shipments will experience a quarter-to-quarter decline of 20% to 25% or 10% to 15% year-on-year, for the second quarter of 2013. The analyst based his prediction on sell-through, which is expected to hit 14 to 15 million units for the three month period.
The dip in shipments is thought to be a result of a slew of cheap Android tablet offerings this year, as well as a high comparison base from 2012 when the third-generation iPad launched. Driving the decline is lowered iPad mini shipments, which are believed to see a roughly 40% quarter-on-quarter drop. Overall, Kuo is forecasting a sell-in of around 12.7 million units for the three month period ending in June. Breaking the numbers down by model, the iPad mini is expected to see 6.2 million units shipped, while the latest fourth-generation iPad will see 4.5 million units. The entry-level iPad 2 will likely come in at around 2 million units shipped.
Last but not least, Kuo notes that the third quarter will see growth as seasonality and an expected launch of a fifth-generation iPad boost shipments to first-quarter levels. However, the analyst points out that the success is highly contingent on how attractive the supposedly slimmed-down “iPad 5” is to consumers. A recent study conducted by IDC saw the iPad’s share of the overall table market dip to 40% during the first quarter of the year. Year-over-year growth was still positive at 65% but rival manufacturers Samsung and ASUS saw their share of their sector jump 283% and 350% from the year ago period, respectively.
The second quarter iPad forecast doesn’t look so positive so hopefully Apple has something new and innovative lined up for its next-gen models in the iPad lineup to turn things around.
Source: KGI Securities